By John Hanchar; NWNYDLFC

Some readers may be checking their calendars wondering why results from the team's annual pricing corn silage work are being published early this year when compared to the usual September, October reporting in Ag Focus.  This year, weather conditions present challenges to farm business owners working to implement cropping programs as planned.  Depending upon adjustments being considered, farm business owners seek price information for relevant crop alternatives.  For example, dairy farmers and cash grain farmers, when faced with a need to consider changes to cropping programs due to weather and, or markets, seek corn silage price information when deciding selling, buying agreements.

The farm business owner can examine how much corn silage the owner would be willing to supply to a market at a given price.  Analysis of the farm business' cost structure for corn silage production combined with consideration of other factors help define the supply relationship.  The seller can develop a target based upon the above, but actual market conditions provide no guarantee that a buyer will purchase quantities desired at prices that achieve the producer's target.

Some farm business owners might approach the task of determining corn silage price from a value in production, or input demand perspective.  Amounts of corn grain and corn stover in a ton of corn silage, relevant output and input prices, and corn silage's place in the milk production process relative to other inputs are key factors.  The buyer can develop a price target based upon the above, but actual market conditions provide no guarantee that a producer will sell the quantity desired at a price that matches the buyer's willingness to pay target.

Although factors in price determination, the two approaches described above, in isolation, don't completely determine price, and quantity.  Supply and demand relationships work simultaneously in markets to determine price, and quantity.  Empirical price analysis brings supply, and demand relationships together to determine price.

Empirical price analysis suggests that corn silage price is a function of corn silage quantities, alfalfa hay price, the price received by farmers for milk sold, and corn grain price.  An ordinary least squares regression model expresses corn silage price as a linear function of the above variables.  The statistical analysis used here is fairly basic.  However, readers of the original work, and annual update articles note that the analysis, and estimates help farm business owners price corn silage.

The ordinary least squares regression model originally reported in August 2012, updated annually to reflect additional data available, and changes in other underlying factors, produced corn silage price estimates for NY.  Estimated corn silage price is a function of alfalfa hay price, and corn grain price with other factors (corn silage production, and milk price) fixed at expected levels.  Expected corn silage quantity is set at 8,430 units (one unit = 1,000 tons), the approximate state average for the period 2007 through 2024, subject to change.

• NY alfalfa hay price is $240 per ton, the most recent value reported, (USDA/NASS.  Agricultural Prices. Washington, DC:  National Agricultural Statistics Service.  QuickStats website.  2025-06-24 access date.), and
• corn grain price is $4.33 per bushel, an approximate value based upon reported bids for fall 2025 (Western NY Energy.  "Corn Bids." Website. 2025-06-24 access date)

Using the estimating equation, and the above prices for alfalfa hay, and corn grain as expected prices, estimated corn silage price is about $60 per ton.  The estimate represents the expected value of corn silage post harvest, in the bunk, wet, for the fall months of September, October, November, 2025.  Compare this to last fall's estimate of about $53 per ton.  Late planting dates, and other agronomic factors, may combine for lower production when compared with the average.  Using an expected corn silage quantity of 7,938 units (1 unit = 1,000 tons), about one standard deviation less than the initial value, yields a corn silage price estimate of about $63 per ton.  Buyers, and sellers use an estimate as a base, typically adjusting for quality and, or harvest, hauling and storage costs based upon the situation, for example, when pricing standing corn for silage.  Corn silage price estimates combine with understanding of important supply, and demand factors from the individual farm business owner's perspective, including local conditions, to aid decision making regarding corn silage price.

• Analysis suggests corn silage price depends upon corn silage quantities, alfalfa hay price, the price received by farmers for milk, and corn grain price.
• Analysis for NY suggests corn silage price estimates are most sensitive to changes in alfalfa hay price, and corn grain price.
• Price estimates, combined with understanding of relevant supply, and demand factors from an individual farm business owner's perspective can aid decision making regarding corn silage price, while also aiding in the pricing of other forages. Given recently available alfalfa hay, and corn grain prices (USDA/NASS, and Western NY Energy, respectively, 2025-06-24 access date), initial fall 2025 price analysis for NY suggests an estimated corn silage price of about $63 per ton.  The fall 2024 estimate was about $53 per ton.